Scotland U19 2–3 Georgia U19: Result & Stats

Scotland U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Georgia U19

3/23/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3Stadio Comunale Giuseppe Morigi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Scotland U1955%

×Draw21%

Georgia U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Scotland U19Expected goals in this matchGeorgia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.29

Scotland U19

2.08

Georgia U19

1.29

Scotland U19 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.86

creates per match

1.07

1.50

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Scotland U19

1.86

Georgia U19

1.07

allows per match

Scotland U19

1.50

Georgia U19

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scotland U19+0.00on par

Georgia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland U19 ↓

Georgia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Scotland U19 or draw

77%

Scotland U19 or Georgia U19

79%

Draw or Georgia U19

45%

Winning margin

Scotland U19 wins by 2+

33%

Georgia U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Scotland U19 1+ goals

87%

Scotland U19 2+ goals

61%

Scotland U19 3+ goals

34%

Georgia U19 1+ goals

72%

Georgia U19 2+ goals

37%

Georgia U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Scotland U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Georgia U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scotland U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

Georgia U19 away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scotland U19 attack 1.86 + Georgia U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.08

Georgia U19 attack 1.07 + Scotland U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Scotland U19 scores more

55%

level

21%

Georgia U19 scores more

23%

Scotland U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Scotland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Scotland U19 2–3 Georgia U19

Georgia U19 beat Scotland U19 3-2 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Giuseppe Morigi in Manzano.

Scotland U19 vs Georgia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Scotland U19 2–3 Georgia U19