Scotland U19 1–1 Croatia U19: Result & Stats

Scotland U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Croatia U19

A. Lowry 90+1'

F. Ivanović 29'

11/16/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 7Stadion Branko Čavlović-Čavlek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Scotland U1943%

×Draw24%

Croatia U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Scotland U19Expected goals in this matchCroatia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.36

Scotland U19

1.58

Croatia U19

1.36

Scotland U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

1.86

creates per match

1.23

1.50

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Scotland U19

1.86

Croatia U19

1.23

allows per match

Scotland U19

1.50

Croatia U19

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scotland U19+0.00on par

Croatia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland U19 ↓

Croatia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Scotland U19 or draw

67%

Scotland U19 or Croatia U19

76%

Draw or Croatia U19

57%

Winning margin

Scotland U19 wins by 2+

21%

Croatia U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Scotland U19 1+ goals

79%

Scotland U19 2+ goals

47%

Scotland U19 3+ goals

21%

Croatia U19 1+ goals

74%

Croatia U19 2+ goals

39%

Croatia U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Scotland U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Croatia U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scotland U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

Croatia U19 away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scotland U19 attack 1.86 + Croatia U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.58

Croatia U19 attack 1.23 + Scotland U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Scotland U19 scores more

43%

level

24%

Croatia U19 scores more

33%

Scotland U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Scotland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

F. Ivanović

53'

A. Lowry← Matthew Craig

54'

A. Devine← J. Chilokoa-Mullen

58'

N. Macolić← M. Frigan

76'

K. Offord← R. Apter

77'

L. Butterfield← Michael Craig

79'

L. Bradarić← M. Perković

84'

L. Coulton← L. Watson

90+4'

I. Krolo← L. Stojković

90+1'

A. Lowry

Scotland

Croatia

1

Kolić

4

▼

13

3

6

8

⚽

Ivanović

15

Rak

7

▼

Stojković

19

Špeljak

2

Lisica

9

▼

Frigan

1

Hogarth

5

Morrison

3

▼

Watson

4

Murray

2

▼

Chilokoa-

16

▼

Craig

6

▼

7

10

9

19

▼

Apter

Manager: B. Stark

53'▲A. Lowry←▼Matthew Craig

54'▲A. Devine←▼J. Chilokoa-Mullen

76'▲K. Offord←▼R. Apter

77'▲L. Butterfield←▼Michael Craig

84'▲L. Coulton←▼L. Watson

Scotland U19 substitutes

18Lowry13Devine20Offord17Butterfield14Coulton8McKinnon11Mochrie15Smith12Metcalfe

Manager: J. Šimunić

58'▲N. Macolić←▼M. Frigan

79'▲L. Bradarić←▼M. Perković

90+4'▲I. Krolo←▼L. Stojković

Croatia U19 substitutes

18Macolić16Bradarić17Krolo5Šuver11Pesch12Frigan14Brkljača20Ćubelić

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Scotland U19 1–1 Croatia U19

Scotland U19 and Croatia U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 16, 2021.

Goals: F. Ivanović (29'), A. Lowry (90+1').

The match was played at Stadion Branko Čavlović-Čavlek in Karlovac.

Scotland U19 vs Croatia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Scotland U19 1–1 Croatia U19