Scotland U19 2–0 Andorra U19: Result & Stats

Scotland U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Andorra U19

10/12/2019

UEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 2The C&G Systems Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Scotland U1983%

×Draw12%

Andorra U195%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Scotland U19Expected goals in this matchAndorra U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

0.50

Scotland U19

2.67

Andorra U19

0.50

Scotland U19 creates 434% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

2.33

creates per match

0.00

1.00

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Scotland U19

2.33

Andorra U19

0.00

allows per match

Scotland U19

1.00

Andorra U19

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scotland U19+0.00on par

Andorra U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland U19 ↓

Andorra U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–16%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Scotland U19 or draw

95%

Scotland U19 or Andorra U19

88%

Draw or Andorra U19

17%

Winning margin

Scotland U19 wins by 2+

62%

Andorra U19 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Scotland U19 1+ goals

93%

Scotland U19 2+ goals

74%

Scotland U19 3+ goals

49%

Andorra U19 1+ goals

39%

Andorra U19 2+ goals

9%

Andorra U19 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Scotland U19 (draw refunded)

94%

Andorra U19 (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scotland U19 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Andorra U19 away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scotland U19 attack 2.33 + Andorra U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.67

Andorra U19 attack 0.00 + Scotland U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Scotland U19 scores more

83%

level

12%

Andorra U19 scores more

5%

Scotland U19 at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Scotland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff