Scotland U17 2–2 North Macedonia U17

Scotland U17

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

North Macedonia U17

3/19/2025

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Round 2 - League B - 1Broadwood Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Scotland U1748%

×Draw20%

North Macedonia U1732%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Scotland U17Expected goals in this matchNorth Macedonia U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.81

Scotland U17

2.23

North Macedonia U17

1.81

Scotland U17 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.15

creates per match

2.00

1.62

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Scotland U17

2.15

North Macedonia U17

2.00

allows per match

Scotland U17

1.62

North Macedonia U17

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scotland U17+0.00on par

North Macedonia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland U17 ↓

North Macedonia U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Scotland U17 or draw

68%

Scotland U17 or North Macedonia U17

80%

Draw or North Macedonia U17

52%

Winning margin

Scotland U17 wins by 2+

28%

North Macedonia U17 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Scotland U17 1+ goals

89%

Scotland U17 2+ goals

65%

Scotland U17 3+ goals

38%

North Macedonia U17 1+ goals

84%

North Macedonia U17 2+ goals

54%

North Macedonia U17 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Scotland U17 (draw refunded)

60%

North Macedonia U17 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scotland U17 at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

North Macedonia U17 away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scotland U17 attack 2.15 + North Macedonia U17 defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.23

North Macedonia U17 attack 2.00 + Scotland U17 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Scotland U17 scores more

48%

level

20%

North Macedonia U17 scores more

32%

Scotland U17 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Scotland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff