SCM Gloria Buzău 0–2 Universitatea Cluj

SCM Gloria Buzău

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Universitatea Cluj

M. Thiam 43'

D. Nistor 27' (pen)

8/26/2024

Liga I · Round 7Stadionul Gloria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

SCM Gloria Buzău29%

×Draw30%

Universitatea Cluj41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SCM Gloria BuzăuExpected goals in this matchUniversitatea Cluj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.14

SCM Gloria Buzău

0.90

Universitatea Cluj

1.14

Universitatea Cluj creates 27% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 79 away

0.60

creates per match

1.13

1.15

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

SCM Gloria Buzău

0.60

Universitatea Cluj

1.13

allows per match

SCM Gloria Buzău

1.15

Universitatea Cluj

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SCM Gloria Buzău+0.00on par

Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SCM Gloria Buzău ↓

Universitatea Cluj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

SCM Gloria Buzău or draw

59%

SCM Gloria Buzău or Universitatea Cluj

70%

Draw or Universitatea Cluj

71%

Winning margin

SCM Gloria Buzău wins by 2+

10%

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

SCM Gloria Buzău 1+ goals

59%

SCM Gloria Buzău 2+ goals

23%

SCM Gloria Buzău 3+ goals

6%

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals

68%

Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals

32%

Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

SCM Gloria Buzău (draw refunded)

41%

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SCM Gloria Buzău at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

Universitatea Cluj away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.19 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SCM Gloria Buzău attack 0.60 + Universitatea Cluj defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.90

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.13 + SCM Gloria Buzău defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

SCM Gloria Buzău scores more

29%

level

30%

Universitatea Cluj scores more

41%

Universitatea Cluj at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Nistor

Universitatea Cluj · M

8.3

Match Events

20'

Diego Ferraresso

27'

D. NistorPenalty

33'

Ovidiu Popescu

43'

M. Thiam↳ V. Raţă

45'

Rassambek Akhmatov

46'

S. Pîrvulescu← C. Gladun

46'

D. Tescan← A. Ișfan

46'

C. Budescu← R. Akhmatov

46'

G. Simion← O. Popescu

57'

C. Dumitru← I. Gheorghe

62'

Edvinas Gertmonas

64'

Dario Čanađija

72'

M. Moraru← V. Blănuță

73'

B. Mitrea← V. Raţă

77'

Lucas Masoero

81'

A. Mihaiu← D. Ferraresso

85'

D. Oancea← D. Nistor

86'

Berto← M. Thiam

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SCMUniversitatea

Overview

43%Possession57%

9Total Shots14

0.34Expected Goals (xG)1.90

2Corners9

7Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots14

3On Target3

3Off Target5

3Blocked6

1Inside Box7

8Outside Box7

Passing

43%Possession57%

397Total Passes518

321Accurate Passes439

81%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3