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SCM Gloria Buzău vs FCSB — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SCM Gloria Buzău
SCM Gloria Buzău
FT
1 – 5
FCSB
FCSB
7/9/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadionul Gloria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

SCM Gloria Buzău31%
×Draw20%
FCSB49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SCM Gloria Buzău
1.81
FCSB
2.29

FCSB creates 27% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

SCM Gloria Buzău
1.80
FCSB
2.17

allows per match

SCM Gloria Buzău
2.40
FCSB
1.83

finishing

SCM Gloria Buzău+0.00on par
FCSB+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SCM Gloria Buzău ↓

FCSB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

SCM Gloria Buzău or draw
51%
SCM Gloria Buzău or FCSB
80%
Draw or FCSB
69%

Winning margin

SCM Gloria Buzău wins by 2+
16%
FCSB wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

SCM Gloria Buzău 1+ goals
84%
SCM Gloria Buzău 2+ goals
54%
SCM Gloria Buzău 3+ goals
27%
FCSB 1+ goals
90%
FCSB 2+ goals
66%
FCSB 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

SCM Gloria Buzău (draw refunded)
39%
FCSB (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SCM Gloria Buzău at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

FCSB away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SCM Gloria Buzău attack 1.80 + FCSB defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.81

FCSB attack 2.17 + SCM Gloria Buzău defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

SCM Gloria Buzău scores more
31%
level
20%
FCSB scores more
49%

FCSB at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SCM Gloria Buzău vs FCSB

FCSB beat SCM Gloria Buzău 5-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Gloria in Buzău.