SCM Gloria Buzău 4–1 FC Astra Giurgiu

SCM Gloria Buzău

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FC Astra Giurgiu

2/26/2022

Liga II · Round 17Stadionul Gloria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

SCM Gloria Buzău64%

×Draw20%

FC Astra Giurgiu15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SCM Gloria BuzăuExpected goals in this matchFC Astra Giurgiu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.88

SCM Gloria Buzău

2.04

FC Astra Giurgiu

0.88

SCM Gloria Buzău creates 132% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 12 away

1.82

creates per match

0.92

0.83

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

SCM Gloria Buzău

1.82

FC Astra Giurgiu

0.92

allows per match

SCM Gloria Buzău

0.83

FC Astra Giurgiu

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SCM Gloria Buzău+0.00on par

FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SCM Gloria Buzău ↓

FC Astra Giurgiu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

SCM Gloria Buzău or draw

85%

SCM Gloria Buzău or FC Astra Giurgiu

80%

Draw or FC Astra Giurgiu

36%

Winning margin

SCM Gloria Buzău wins by 2+

40%

FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

SCM Gloria Buzău 1+ goals

87%

SCM Gloria Buzău 2+ goals

60%

SCM Gloria Buzău 3+ goals

33%

FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals

59%

FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals

22%

FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

SCM Gloria Buzău (draw refunded)

81%

FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SCM Gloria Buzău at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.83 · 65 matches

FC Astra Giurgiu away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SCM Gloria Buzău attack 1.82 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.04

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 0.92 + SCM Gloria Buzău defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

SCM Gloria Buzău scores more

64%

level

20%

FC Astra Giurgiu scores more

15%

SCM Gloria Buzău at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "SCM Gloria Buzău will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff