SCM Gloria Buzău 1–0 CSA Steaua Bucureşti

SCM Gloria Buzău

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

4/22/2023

Liga II · Promotion Round - 5Stadionul Gloria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

SCM Gloria Buzău45%

×Draw26%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SCM Gloria BuzăuExpected goals in this matchCSA Steaua Bucureşti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.15

SCM Gloria Buzău

1.50

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

1.15

SCM Gloria Buzău creates 30% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 72 away

1.82

creates per match

1.46

0.83

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

SCM Gloria Buzău

1.82

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

1.46

allows per match

SCM Gloria Buzău

0.83

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SCM Gloria Buzău+0.00on par

CSA Steaua Bucureşti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SCM Gloria Buzău ↓

CSA Steaua Bucureşti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

SCM Gloria Buzău or draw

71%

SCM Gloria Buzău or CSA Steaua Bucureşti

74%

Draw or CSA Steaua Bucureşti

55%

Winning margin

SCM Gloria Buzău wins by 2+

22%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

SCM Gloria Buzău 1+ goals

78%

SCM Gloria Buzău 2+ goals

44%

SCM Gloria Buzău 3+ goals

19%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti 1+ goals

68%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti 2+ goals

32%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

SCM Gloria Buzău (draw refunded)

61%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SCM Gloria Buzău at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.83 · 65 matches

CSA Steaua Bucureşti away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.17 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SCM Gloria Buzău attack 1.82 + CSA Steaua Bucureşti defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.50

CSA Steaua Bucureşti attack 1.46 + SCM Gloria Buzău defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

SCM Gloria Buzău scores more

45%

level

26%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti scores more

29%

SCM Gloria Buzău at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SCM Gloria Buzău will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff