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SCM Gloria Buzău vs AFC Hermannstadt — Liga I 2018

SCM Gloria Buzău
SCM Gloria Buzău
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
AFC Hermannstadt
AFC Hermannstadt
10/18/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 13Stadionul Gloria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

SCM Gloria Buzău34%
×Draw31%
AFC Hermannstadt35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SCM Gloria Buzău
1.01
AFC Hermannstadt
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 138 away

creates per match

SCM Gloria Buzău
0.60
AFC Hermannstadt
0.90

allows per match

SCM Gloria Buzău
1.15
AFC Hermannstadt
1.42

finishing

SCM Gloria Buzău+0.00on par
AFC Hermannstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SCM Gloria Buzău ↓

AFC Hermannstadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

SCM Gloria Buzău or draw
65%
SCM Gloria Buzău or AFC Hermannstadt
69%
Draw or AFC Hermannstadt
66%

Winning margin

SCM Gloria Buzău wins by 2+
13%
AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SCM Gloria Buzău 1+ goals
64%
SCM Gloria Buzău 2+ goals
27%
SCM Gloria Buzău 3+ goals
8%
AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals
64%
AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals
27%
AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

SCM Gloria Buzău (draw refunded)
50%
AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SCM Gloria Buzău at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

AFC Hermannstadt away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.42 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SCM Gloria Buzău attack 0.60 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.01

AFC Hermannstadt attack 0.90 + SCM Gloria Buzău defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

SCM Gloria Buzău scores more
34%
level
31%
AFC Hermannstadt scores more
35%

AFC Hermannstadt at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "AFC Hermannstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SCM Gloria Buzău vs AFC Hermannstadt

SCM Gloria Buzău beat AFC Hermannstadt 3-0 in Liga I on October 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Gloria in Buzău.