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SCJ vs HauPa — Suomen Cup 2018

SCJ
SCJ
FT
2 – 4
HauPa
HauPa
2/26/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundOunasrinne Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

SCJ22%
×Draw16%
HauPa63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SCJ
2.25
HauPa
3.71

HauPa creates 65% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

SCJ
3.00
HauPa
4.25

allows per match

SCJ
3.17
HauPa
1.50

finishing

SCJ+0.00on par
HauPa+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

87%Yes
  • Yes87
  • No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SCJ ↓

HauPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–24%
1–35%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
83%17%4.5
68%32%

Double chance

SCJ or draw
37%
SCJ or HauPa
84%
Draw or HauPa
78%

Winning margin

SCJ wins by 2+
11%
HauPa wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

SCJ 1+ goals
89%
SCJ 2+ goals
65%
SCJ 3+ goals
39%
HauPa 1+ goals
97%
HauPa 2+ goals
87%
HauPa 3+ goals
69%

Draw no bet

SCJ (draw refunded)
26%
HauPa (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
85%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SCJ at home — creates 3.00, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

HauPa away — creates 4.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SCJ attack 3.00 + HauPa defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

HauPa attack 4.25 + SCJ defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 3.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

SCJ scores more
22%
level
16%
HauPa scores more
63%

HauPa at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "HauPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: SCJ 2–4 HauPa

HauPa beat SCJ 4-2 in Suomen Cup on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Ounasrinne Tekonurmi in Rovaniemi.