Schwechat 3–3 Union Mauer: Result & Stats

Schwechat

FT

3 – 3

Union Mauer

6/3/2022

Landesliga - Wien · Wien - 30Rudolf-Tonn-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Schwechat35%

×Draw24%

Union Mauer41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SchwechatExpected goals in this matchUnion Mauer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.62

Schwechat

1.46

Union Mauer

1.62

Union Mauer creates 11% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 60 away

1.96

creates per match

2.03

1.21

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Schwechat

1.96

Union Mauer

2.03

allows per match

Schwechat

1.21

Union Mauer

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schwechat+0.00on par

Union Mauer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schwechat ↓

Union Mauer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Schwechat or draw

59%

Schwechat or Union Mauer

76%

Draw or Union Mauer

65%

Winning margin

Schwechat wins by 2+

16%

Union Mauer wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Schwechat 1+ goals

77%

Schwechat 2+ goals

43%

Schwechat 3+ goals

18%

Union Mauer 1+ goals

80%

Union Mauer 2+ goals

48%

Union Mauer 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Schwechat (draw refunded)

45%

Union Mauer (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schwechat at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.21 · 75 matches

Union Mauer away — creates 2.03, concedes 0.97 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schwechat attack 1.96 + Union Mauer defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.46

Union Mauer attack 2.03 + Schwechat defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Schwechat scores more

35%

level

24%

Union Mauer scores more

41%

Union Mauer at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Union Mauer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff