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Schwechat vs Elektra — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Schwechat
Schwechat
CANC
00:00
Elektra
Elektra
4/17/2020Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 22Rudolf-Tonn-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Schwechat37%
×Draw25%
Elektra39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schwechat
1.44
Elektra
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 13 away

creates per match

Schwechat
1.96
Elektra
1.77

allows per match

Schwechat
1.21
Elektra
0.92

finishing

Schwechat+0.00on par
Elektra+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schwechat ↓

Elektra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Schwechat or draw
61%
Schwechat or Elektra
75%
Draw or Elektra
63%

Winning margin

Schwechat wins by 2+
17%
Elektra wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Schwechat 1+ goals
76%
Schwechat 2+ goals
42%
Schwechat 3+ goals
18%
Elektra 1+ goals
77%
Elektra 2+ goals
44%
Elektra 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Schwechat (draw refunded)
49%
Elektra (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schwechat at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.21 · 75 matches

Elektra away — creates 1.77, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schwechat attack 1.96 + Elektra defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.44

Elektra attack 1.77 + Schwechat defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Schwechat scores more
37%
level
25%
Elektra scores more
39%

Elektra at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Elektra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Schwechat host Elektra

April 17, 2020: Schwechat take on Elektra in Landesliga - Wien. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Schwechat host Elektra at Rudolf-Tonn-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.