Schwaz 0–3 WSG Wattens: Result & Stats

Schwaz

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

WSG Wattens

1/17/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Silberstadt Arena Schwaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Schwaz25%

×Draw16%

WSG Wattens59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SchwazExpected goals in this matchWSG Wattens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

3.42

Schwaz

2.25

WSG Wattens

3.42

WSG Wattens creates 52% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

3.50

creates per match

5.33

1.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Schwaz

3.50

WSG Wattens

5.33

allows per match

Schwaz

1.50

WSG Wattens

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schwaz+0.00on par

WSG Wattens+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes86
No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schwaz ↓

WSG Wattens →

0–00%

0–11%

0–22%

0–32%

0–42%

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–36%

1–45%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–12%

3–24%

3–35%

3–44%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

80%20%4.5

64%36%

Double chance

Schwaz or draw

41%

Schwaz or WSG Wattens

84%

Draw or WSG Wattens

75%

Winning margin

Schwaz wins by 2+

13%

WSG Wattens wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Schwaz 1+ goals

89%

Schwaz 2+ goals

65%

Schwaz 3+ goals

39%

WSG Wattens 1+ goals

97%

WSG Wattens 2+ goals

85%

WSG Wattens 3+ goals

64%

Draw no bet

Schwaz (draw refunded)

29%

WSG Wattens (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

83%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Schwaz at home — creates 3.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

WSG Wattens away — creates 5.33, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Schwaz attack 3.50 + WSG Wattens defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

WSG Wattens attack 5.33 + Schwaz defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 3.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Schwaz scores more

25%

level

16%

WSG Wattens scores more

59%

WSG Wattens at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "WSG Wattens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff