Schwaz 1–1 Austria Salzburg: Result & Stats

Schwaz

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Austria Salzburg

4/14/2017

Regionalliga - West · Round 23Silberstadt Arena Schwaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Schwaz33%

×Draw24%

Austria Salzburg44%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SchwazExpected goals in this matchAustria Salzburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.70

Schwaz

1.44

Austria Salzburg

1.70

Austria Salzburg creates 18% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 39 away

1.77

creates per match

2.05

1.35

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Schwaz

1.77

Austria Salzburg

2.05

allows per match

Schwaz

1.35

Austria Salzburg

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schwaz+0.00on par

Austria Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schwaz ↓

Austria Salzburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Schwaz or draw

56%

Schwaz or Austria Salzburg

76%

Draw or Austria Salzburg

67%

Winning margin

Schwaz wins by 2+

15%

Austria Salzburg wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Schwaz 1+ goals

76%

Schwaz 2+ goals

42%

Schwaz 3+ goals

18%

Austria Salzburg 1+ goals

82%

Austria Salzburg 2+ goals

51%

Austria Salzburg 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Schwaz (draw refunded)

43%

Austria Salzburg (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schwaz at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Austria Salzburg away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.10 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schwaz attack 1.77 + Austria Salzburg defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.44

Austria Salzburg attack 2.05 + Schwaz defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Schwaz scores more

33%

level

24%

Austria Salzburg scores more

44%

Austria Salzburg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Austria Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff