Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 3–6 TSV 1860 München

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz

3 – 6

HT: 2 – 2

TSV 1860 München

1/13/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportplatz Viktoria Bregenz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz34%

×Draw20%

TSV 1860 München45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Schwarz-Weiß BregenzExpected goals in this matchTSV 1860 München

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

2.22

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz

1.92

TSV 1860 München

2.22

TSV 1860 München creates 16% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

2.40

creates per match

2.78

1.67

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz

2.40

TSV 1860 München

2.78

allows per match

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz

1.67

TSV 1860 München

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz+0.00on par

TSV 1860 München+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz ↓

TSV 1860 München →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz or draw

55%

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz or TSV 1860 München

80%

Draw or TSV 1860 München

66%

Winning margin

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz wins by 2+

18%

TSV 1860 München wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 1+ goals

85%

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 2+ goals

57%

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 3+ goals

30%

TSV 1860 München 1+ goals

89%

TSV 1860 München 2+ goals

65%

TSV 1860 München 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz (draw refunded)

43%

TSV 1860 München (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

TSV 1860 München away — creates 2.78, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz attack 2.40 + TSV 1860 München defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.92

TSV 1860 München attack 2.78 + Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz scores more

34%

level

20%

TSV 1860 München scores more

45%

TSV 1860 München at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "TSV 1860 München will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff