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Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz vs St. Gallen II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
St. Gallen II
St. Gallen II
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportplatz Viktoria Bregenz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz50%
×Draw19%
St. Gallen II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
2.54
St. Gallen II
2.00

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz creates 27% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

creates per match

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
2.40
St. Gallen II
2.33

allows per match

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.67
St. Gallen II
2.67

finishing

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz+0.00on par
St. Gallen II+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz ↓

St. Gallen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz or draw
69%
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz or St. Gallen II
81%
Draw or St. Gallen II
50%

Winning margin

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz wins by 2+
31%
St. Gallen II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 1+ goals
92%
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 2+ goals
72%
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 3+ goals
46%
St. Gallen II 1+ goals
86%
St. Gallen II 2+ goals
59%
St. Gallen II 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz (draw refunded)
62%
St. Gallen II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

St. Gallen II away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz attack 2.40 + St. Gallen II defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.54

St. Gallen II attack 2.33 + Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz scores more
50%
level
19%
St. Gallen II scores more
31%

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz vs St. Gallen II

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz and St. Gallen II drew 3-3 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Viktoria Bregenz in Bregenz.