Schwaben Augsburg 1–1 Hallbergmoos-Goldach

Schwaben Augsburg

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hallbergmoos-Goldach

11/12/2022

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 19Ernst-Lehner-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Schwaben Augsburg66%

×Draw18%

Hallbergmoos-Goldach16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Schwaben AugsburgExpected goals in this matchHallbergmoos-Goldach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.12

Schwaben Augsburg

2.42

Hallbergmoos-Goldach

1.12

Schwaben Augsburg creates 116% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

2.44

creates per match

1.00

1.24

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Schwaben Augsburg

2.44

Hallbergmoos-Goldach

1.00

allows per match

Schwaben Augsburg

1.24

Hallbergmoos-Goldach

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schwaben Augsburg+0.00on par

Hallbergmoos-Goldach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schwaben Augsburg ↓

Hallbergmoos-Goldach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Schwaben Augsburg or draw

84%

Schwaben Augsburg or Hallbergmoos-Goldach

82%

Draw or Hallbergmoos-Goldach

34%

Winning margin

Schwaben Augsburg wins by 2+

43%

Hallbergmoos-Goldach wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Schwaben Augsburg 1+ goals

91%

Schwaben Augsburg 2+ goals

69%

Schwaben Augsburg 3+ goals

43%

Hallbergmoos-Goldach 1+ goals

67%

Hallbergmoos-Goldach 2+ goals

31%

Hallbergmoos-Goldach 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Schwaben Augsburg (draw refunded)

80%

Hallbergmoos-Goldach (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schwaben Augsburg at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

Hallbergmoos-Goldach away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schwaben Augsburg attack 2.44 + Hallbergmoos-Goldach defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.42

Hallbergmoos-Goldach attack 1.00 + Schwaben Augsburg defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Schwaben Augsburg scores more

66%

level

18%

Hallbergmoos-Goldach scores more

16%

Schwaben Augsburg at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Schwaben Augsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff