Schwaben Augsburg 4–3 FC Schweinfurt 05

Schwaben Augsburg

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

FC Schweinfurt 05

S. Achatz 90+2'

M. Heiß 68', 39'

L. Ramser 58'

J. Endres 65'

M. Thomann 45+2' (pen)

S. Müller 3'

9/14/2024

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 9Rosenaustadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Schwaben Augsburg36%

×Draw22%

FC Schweinfurt 0542%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Schwaben AugsburgExpected goals in this matchFC Schweinfurt 05

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.83

Schwaben Augsburg

1.68

FC Schweinfurt 05

1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 71 away

1.52

creates per match

1.79

1.88

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Schwaben Augsburg

1.52

FC Schweinfurt 05

1.79

allows per match

Schwaben Augsburg

1.88

FC Schweinfurt 05

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schwaben Augsburg+0.00on par

FC Schweinfurt 05+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schwaben Augsburg ↓

FC Schweinfurt 05 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Schwaben Augsburg or draw

58%

Schwaben Augsburg or FC Schweinfurt 05

78%

Draw or FC Schweinfurt 05

64%

Winning margin

Schwaben Augsburg wins by 2+

18%

FC Schweinfurt 05 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Schwaben Augsburg 1+ goals

81%

Schwaben Augsburg 2+ goals

50%

Schwaben Augsburg 3+ goals

24%

FC Schweinfurt 05 1+ goals

84%

FC Schweinfurt 05 2+ goals

54%

FC Schweinfurt 05 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Schwaben Augsburg (draw refunded)

46%

FC Schweinfurt 05 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schwaben Augsburg at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.88 · 25 matches

FC Schweinfurt 05 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.83 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schwaben Augsburg attack 1.52 + FC Schweinfurt 05 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.68

FC Schweinfurt 05 attack 1.79 + Schwaben Augsburg defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Schwaben Augsburg scores more

36%

level

22%

FC Schweinfurt 05 scores more

42%

FC Schweinfurt 05 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Schweinfurt 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

S. Müller

39'

M. Heiß

45+2'

M. ThomannPenalty

58'

L. Ramser

65'

J. Endres

68'

S. Achatz← S. Gail

68'

N. Della Schiava← M. Heiß

68'

M. Heiß

76'

L. Bischofberger← B. Krug

76'

P. Hofmann← J. Endres

82'

F. Bozesan← M. Dellinger

88'

R. Fackler-Stamm← A. Keereerom

90+2'

E. Havolli← T. Diowo

90+2'

S. Achatz

Schwaben

FC

31

4

18

13

14

⚽

Thomann

33

⚽

▼

Endres

19

Piwernetz

37

⚽

Müller

10

▼

3

7

1

6

22

▼

24

9

14

10

⚽

Ramser

8

▼

Gail

7

⚽2

▼

Heiß

18

▼

Keereerom

15

▼

Diowo

Manager: M. Ostrzolek

68'▲S. Achatz←▼S. Gail

68'▲N. Della Schiava←▼M. Heiß

76'▲L. Bischofberger←▼B. Krug

88'▲R. Fackler-Stamm←▼A. Keereerom

90+2'▲E. Havolli←▼T. Diowo

Schwaben Augsburg substitutes

16Achatz3Schiava27Bischofberger11Fackler-Stamm4Havolli30Öztürk33Yücel35Reil

Manager: V. Kleinhenz

76'▲P. Hofmann←▼J. Endres

82'▲F. Bozesan←▼M. Dellinger

FC Schweinfurt 05 substitutes

9Hofmann29Bozesan2Doktorczyk11Schmitt21Bausenwein22Feulner24Stephan25Wehner36Einsiedler