Schruns 1–3 Admira Dornbirn: Result & Stats

Schruns

FT

1 – 3

Admira Dornbirn

8/17/2019

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 5Sportplatz Golm

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Schruns29%

×Draw22%

Admira Dornbirn49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SchrunsExpected goals in this matchAdmira Dornbirn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

2.02

Schruns

1.53

Admira Dornbirn

2.02

Admira Dornbirn creates 32% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 55 away

1.19

creates per match

2.02

2.03

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Schruns

1.19

Admira Dornbirn

2.02

allows per match

Schruns

2.03

Admira Dornbirn

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schruns+0.00on par

Admira Dornbirn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schruns ↓

Admira Dornbirn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Schruns or draw

51%

Schruns or Admira Dornbirn

78%

Draw or Admira Dornbirn

71%

Winning margin

Schruns wins by 2+

14%

Admira Dornbirn wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Schruns 1+ goals

78%

Schruns 2+ goals

45%

Schruns 3+ goals

20%

Admira Dornbirn 1+ goals

87%

Admira Dornbirn 2+ goals

60%

Admira Dornbirn 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Schruns (draw refunded)

38%

Admira Dornbirn (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schruns at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.03 · 31 matches

Admira Dornbirn away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.87 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schruns attack 1.19 + Admira Dornbirn defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.53

Admira Dornbirn attack 2.02 + Schruns defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Schruns scores more

29%

level

22%

Admira Dornbirn scores more

49%

Admira Dornbirn at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Admira Dornbirn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff