Schrems 0–1 Langenrohr: Result & Stats

Schrems

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Langenrohr

4/4/2025

Landesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 21Birkenpark Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Schrems45%

×Draw23%

Langenrohr32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SchremsExpected goals in this matchLangenrohr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.45

Schrems

1.78

Langenrohr

1.45

Schrems creates 23% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 86 away

1.69

creates per match

1.28

1.61

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Schrems

1.69

Langenrohr

1.28

allows per match

Schrems

1.61

Langenrohr

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schrems+0.00on par

Langenrohr+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schrems ↓

Langenrohr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Schrems or draw

68%

Schrems or Langenrohr

77%

Draw or Langenrohr

55%

Winning margin

Schrems wins by 2+

24%

Langenrohr wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Schrems 1+ goals

83%

Schrems 2+ goals

53%

Schrems 3+ goals

26%

Langenrohr 1+ goals

77%

Langenrohr 2+ goals

42%

Langenrohr 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Schrems (draw refunded)

59%

Langenrohr (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schrems at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.61 · 87 matches

Langenrohr away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.87 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schrems attack 1.69 + Langenrohr defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.78

Langenrohr attack 1.28 + Schrems defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Schrems scores more

45%

level

23%

Langenrohr scores more

32%

Schrems at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Schrems will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff