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Schrems vs Haitzendorf — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Schrems
Schrems
FT
2 – 0
Haitzendorf
Haitzendorf
9/9/2023Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 6Birkenpark Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Schrems46%
×Draw23%
Haitzendorf31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schrems
1.76
Haitzendorf
1.41

Schrems creates 25% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 29 away

creates per match

Schrems
1.69
Haitzendorf
1.21

allows per match

Schrems
1.61
Haitzendorf
1.83

finishing

Schrems+0.00on par
Haitzendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schrems ↓

Haitzendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Schrems or draw
69%
Schrems or Haitzendorf
77%
Draw or Haitzendorf
54%

Winning margin

Schrems wins by 2+
24%
Haitzendorf wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Schrems 1+ goals
83%
Schrems 2+ goals
52%
Schrems 3+ goals
26%
Haitzendorf 1+ goals
76%
Haitzendorf 2+ goals
41%
Haitzendorf 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Schrems (draw refunded)
60%
Haitzendorf (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schrems at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.61 · 87 matches

Haitzendorf away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.83 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schrems attack 1.69 + Haitzendorf defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.76

Haitzendorf attack 1.21 + Schrems defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Schrems scores more
46%
level
23%
Haitzendorf scores more
31%

Schrems at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Schrems will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Niederosterreich: Schrems 2–0 Haitzendorf

Schrems beat Haitzendorf 2-0 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Birkenpark Stadion in Schrems.