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Schouweiler vs Sanem — Cup 2020

Schouweiler
Schouweiler
FT
2 – 3
Sanem
Sanem
9/9/2020CupCup · 1st RoundStade Roger Winandy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Schouweiler14%
×Draw14%
Sanem72%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schouweiler
1.50
Sanem
3.42

Sanem creates 128% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Schouweiler
1.00
Sanem
3.67

allows per match

Schouweiler
3.17
Sanem
2.00

finishing

Schouweiler+0.00on par
Sanem+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schouweiler ↓

Sanem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Schouweiler or draw
28%
Schouweiler or Sanem
86%
Draw or Sanem
86%

Winning margin

Schouweiler wins by 2+
6%
Sanem wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

Schouweiler 1+ goals
78%
Schouweiler 2+ goals
44%
Schouweiler 3+ goals
19%
Sanem 1+ goals
97%
Sanem 2+ goals
85%
Sanem 3+ goals
64%

Draw no bet

Schouweiler (draw refunded)
16%
Sanem (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schouweiler at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

Sanem away — creates 3.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schouweiler attack 1.00 + Sanem defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sanem attack 3.67 + Schouweiler defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 3.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Schouweiler scores more
14%
level
14%
Sanem scores more
72%

Sanem at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Sanem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Schouweiler 2–3 Sanem

Sanem beat Schouweiler 3-2 in Cup on September 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Roger Winandy in Schouweiler.