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Schouweiler vs Résidence Walferdange — Cup 2020

Schouweiler
Schouweiler
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Résidence Walferdange
Résidence Walferdange
10/1/2023CupCup · 2nd RoundStade Roger Winandy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Schouweiler13%
×Draw16%
Résidence Walferdange71%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schouweiler
1.17
Résidence Walferdange
2.83

Résidence Walferdange creates 142% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Schouweiler
1.00
Résidence Walferdange
2.50

allows per match

Schouweiler
3.17
Résidence Walferdange
1.33

finishing

Schouweiler+0.00on par
Résidence Walferdange+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schouweiler ↓

Résidence Walferdange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Schouweiler or draw
29%
Schouweiler or Résidence Walferdange
84%
Draw or Résidence Walferdange
87%

Winning margin

Schouweiler wins by 2+
5%
Résidence Walferdange wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Schouweiler 1+ goals
69%
Schouweiler 2+ goals
33%
Schouweiler 3+ goals
11%
Résidence Walferdange 1+ goals
94%
Résidence Walferdange 2+ goals
77%
Résidence Walferdange 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Schouweiler (draw refunded)
16%
Résidence Walferdange (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schouweiler at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

Résidence Walferdange away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schouweiler attack 1.00 + Résidence Walferdange defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Résidence Walferdange attack 2.50 + Schouweiler defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Schouweiler scores more
13%
level
16%
Résidence Walferdange scores more
71%

Résidence Walferdange at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Résidence Walferdange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Schouweiler 0–3 Résidence Walferdange

Résidence Walferdange beat Schouweiler 3-0 in Cup on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Roger Winandy in Schouweiler.