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Schouweiler vs Obercorn — Cup 2020

Schouweiler
Schouweiler
FT
0 – 4
Obercorn
Obercorn
9/12/2021CupCup · 1st RoundStade Roger Winandy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Schouweiler8%
×Draw13%
Obercorn79%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schouweiler
0.88
Obercorn
2.96

Obercorn creates 236% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Schouweiler
1.00
Obercorn
2.75

allows per match

Schouweiler
3.17
Obercorn
0.75

finishing

Schouweiler+0.00on par
Obercorn+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schouweiler ↓

Obercorn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–210%
0–310%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Schouweiler or draw
21%
Schouweiler or Obercorn
87%
Draw or Obercorn
92%

Winning margin

Schouweiler wins by 2+
2%
Obercorn wins by 2+
59%

Team goals

Schouweiler 1+ goals
59%
Schouweiler 2+ goals
22%
Schouweiler 3+ goals
6%
Obercorn 1+ goals
95%
Obercorn 2+ goals
79%
Obercorn 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Schouweiler (draw refunded)
10%
Obercorn (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schouweiler at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

Obercorn away — creates 2.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schouweiler attack 1.00 + Obercorn defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Obercorn attack 2.75 + Schouweiler defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Schouweiler scores more
8%
level
13%
Obercorn scores more
79%

Obercorn at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Obercorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Schouweiler 0–4 Obercorn

Obercorn beat Schouweiler 4-0 in Cup on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Roger Winandy in Schouweiler.