Schouweiler 3–5 Ehlerange: Result & Stats | Cup

Schouweiler

3 – 5

Ehlerange

9/7/2024

Cup · 1st RoundStade Roger Winandy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Schouweiler52%

×Draw18%

Ehlerange30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SchouweilerExpected goals in this matchEhlerange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.88

2.21

Schouweiler

2.88

Ehlerange

2.21

Schouweiler creates 30% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

1.25

3.17

allows per match

4.75

creates per match

Schouweiler

1.00

Ehlerange

1.25

allows per match

Schouweiler

3.17

Ehlerange

4.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schouweiler+0.00on par

Ehlerange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes84
No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schouweiler ↓

Ehlerange →

0–01%

0–11%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–33%

1–42%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

56%44%

Double chance

Schouweiler or draw

70%

Schouweiler or Ehlerange

82%

Draw or Ehlerange

48%

Winning margin

Schouweiler wins by 2+

33%

Ehlerange wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Schouweiler 1+ goals

94%

Schouweiler 2+ goals

78%

Schouweiler 3+ goals

54%

Ehlerange 1+ goals

89%

Ehlerange 2+ goals

65%

Ehlerange 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Schouweiler (draw refunded)

63%

Ehlerange (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

80%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Schouweiler at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

Ehlerange away — creates 1.25, concedes 4.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Schouweiler attack 1.00 + Ehlerange defence 4.75 → ÷2 → 2.88

Ehlerange attack 1.25 + Schouweiler defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Schouweiler scores more

52%

level

18%

Ehlerange scores more

30%

Schouweiler at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Schouweiler will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff