Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Schötz vs Thun II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Schötz
Schötz
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Thun II
Thun II
8/24/20241. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Fussballanlage Wissenhusen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Schötz52%
×Draw21%
Thun II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schötz
2.10
Thun II
1.46

Schötz creates 44% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 45 away

creates per match

Schötz
2.16
Thun II
1.33

allows per match

Schötz
1.59
Thun II
2.04

finishing

Schötz+0.00on par
Thun II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schötz ↓

Thun II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Schötz or draw
73%
Schötz or Thun II
79%
Draw or Thun II
48%

Winning margin

Schötz wins by 2+
31%
Thun II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Schötz 1+ goals
88%
Schötz 2+ goals
62%
Schötz 3+ goals
35%
Thun II 1+ goals
77%
Thun II 2+ goals
43%
Thun II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Schötz (draw refunded)
66%
Thun II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schötz at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.59 · 86 matches

Thun II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schötz attack 2.16 + Thun II defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.10

Thun II attack 1.33 + Schötz defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Schötz scores more
52%
level
21%
Thun II scores more
27%

Schötz at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Schötz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Schötz vs Thun II

Schötz beat Thun II 5-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Fussballanlage Wissenhusen in Schötz.