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Schötz vs Neuchâtel Xamax II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Schötz
Schötz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Neuchâtel Xamax II
Neuchâtel Xamax II
9/24/20221. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Fussballanlage Wissenhusen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Schötz43%
×Draw22%
Neuchâtel Xamax II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schötz
1.88
Neuchâtel Xamax II
1.66

Schötz creates 13% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 15 away

creates per match

Schötz
2.16
Neuchâtel Xamax II
1.73

allows per match

Schötz
1.59
Neuchâtel Xamax II
1.60

finishing

Schötz+0.00on par
Neuchâtel Xamax II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schötz ↓

Neuchâtel Xamax II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Schötz or draw
65%
Schötz or Neuchâtel Xamax II
78%
Draw or Neuchâtel Xamax II
57%

Winning margin

Schötz wins by 2+
24%
Neuchâtel Xamax II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Schötz 1+ goals
85%
Schötz 2+ goals
56%
Schötz 3+ goals
29%
Neuchâtel Xamax II 1+ goals
81%
Neuchâtel Xamax II 2+ goals
49%
Neuchâtel Xamax II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Schötz (draw refunded)
56%
Neuchâtel Xamax II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schötz at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.59 · 86 matches

Neuchâtel Xamax II away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schötz attack 2.16 + Neuchâtel Xamax II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.88

Neuchâtel Xamax II attack 1.73 + Schötz defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Schötz scores more
43%
level
22%
Neuchâtel Xamax II scores more
35%

Schötz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Schötz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Schötz vs Neuchâtel Xamax II

Schötz beat Neuchâtel Xamax II 2-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Fussballanlage Wissenhusen in Schötz.