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Schötz vs Muri — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Schötz
Schötz
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Muri
Muri
4/15/20231. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 24Fussballanlage Wissenhusen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Schötz63%
×Draw17%
Muri19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schötz
2.82
Muri
1.54

Schötz creates 83% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 30 away

creates per match

Schötz
2.16
Muri
1.50

allows per match

Schötz
1.59
Muri
3.47

finishing

Schötz+0.00on par
Muri+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schötz ↓

Muri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Schötz or draw
81%
Schötz or Muri
83%
Draw or Muri
37%

Winning margin

Schötz wins by 2+
43%
Muri wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Schötz 1+ goals
94%
Schötz 2+ goals
77%
Schötz 3+ goals
52%
Muri 1+ goals
79%
Muri 2+ goals
45%
Muri 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Schötz (draw refunded)
77%
Muri (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schötz at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.59 · 86 matches

Muri away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schötz attack 2.16 + Muri defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.82

Muri attack 1.50 + Schötz defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Schötz scores more
63%
level
17%
Muri scores more
19%

Schötz at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Schötz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 2: Schötz 2–3 Muri

Muri beat Schötz 3-2 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Fussballanlage Wissenhusen in Schötz.