Schötz 2–2 Concordia Basel: Result & Stats

Schötz

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Concordia Basel

M. Weber 62'

S. Andrist 54'

D. Temelkov 23', 7'

2/19/2025

1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Wissenhusen Kunststoffrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Schötz43%

×Draw22%

Concordia Basel35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SchötzExpected goals in this matchConcordia Basel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.76

Schötz

1.97

Concordia Basel

1.76

Schötz creates 12% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 60 away

2.16

creates per match

1.93

1.59

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Schötz

2.16

Concordia Basel

1.93

allows per match

Schötz

1.59

Concordia Basel

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schötz+0.00on par

Concordia Basel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schötz ↓

Concordia Basel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Schötz or draw

65%

Schötz or Concordia Basel

78%

Draw or Concordia Basel

57%

Winning margin

Schötz wins by 2+

24%

Concordia Basel wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Schötz 1+ goals

86%

Schötz 2+ goals

58%

Schötz 3+ goals

31%

Concordia Basel 1+ goals

83%

Concordia Basel 2+ goals

52%

Concordia Basel 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Schötz (draw refunded)

55%

Concordia Basel (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schötz at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.59 · 86 matches

Concordia Basel away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schötz attack 2.16 + Concordia Basel defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.97

Concordia Basel attack 1.93 + Schötz defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Schötz scores more

43%

level

22%

Concordia Basel scores more

35%

Schötz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Schötz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

D. Temelkov

23'

D. Temelkov

54'

S. Andrist

62'

M. Weber

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff