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Schötz vs Black Stars — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Schötz
Schötz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Black Stars
Black Stars
9/7/20241. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Fussballanlage Wissenhusen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Schötz46%
×Draw22%
Black Stars33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schötz
2.00
Black Stars
1.68

Schötz creates 19% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 60 away

creates per match

Schötz
2.16
Black Stars
1.77

allows per match

Schötz
1.59
Black Stars
1.85

finishing

Schötz+0.00on par
Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schötz ↓

Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Schötz or draw
67%
Schötz or Black Stars
78%
Draw or Black Stars
54%

Winning margin

Schötz wins by 2+
26%
Black Stars wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Schötz 1+ goals
86%
Schötz 2+ goals
59%
Schötz 3+ goals
32%
Black Stars 1+ goals
81%
Black Stars 2+ goals
50%
Black Stars 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Schötz (draw refunded)
58%
Black Stars (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schötz at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.59 · 86 matches

Black Stars away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.85 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schötz attack 2.16 + Black Stars defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.00

Black Stars attack 1.77 + Schötz defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Schötz scores more
46%
level
22%
Black Stars scores more
33%

Schötz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Schötz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Schötz vs Black Stars

Schötz beat Black Stars 2-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Fussballanlage Wissenhusen in Schötz.