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Schott Mainz vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Schott Mainz
Schott Mainz
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1/31/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Schott Mainz66%
×Draw17%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schott Mainz
2.88
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.46

Schott Mainz creates 97% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Schott Mainz
4.20
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
2.11

allows per match

Schott Mainz
0.80
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.56

finishing

Schott Mainz+0.00on par
Viktoria Aschaffenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 80Under: 2080%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 72No: 2872%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schott Mainz ↓

Viktoria Aschaffenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Schott Mainz or draw
82%
Schott Mainz or Viktoria Aschaffenburg
83%
Draw or Viktoria Aschaffenburg
34%

Winning margin

Schott Mainz wins by 2+
46%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Schott Mainz 1+ goals
94%
Schott Mainz 2+ goals
78%
Schott Mainz 3+ goals
54%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 1+ goals
77%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 2+ goals
43%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Schott Mainz (draw refunded)
79%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schott Mainz at home — creates 4.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Viktoria Aschaffenburg away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schott Mainz attack 4.20 + Viktoria Aschaffenburg defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.88

Viktoria Aschaffenburg attack 2.11 + Schott Mainz defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Schott Mainz scores more
66%
level
17%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg scores more
18%

Schott Mainz at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Schott Mainz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Schott
Viktoria
S. Horozović
Manager: S. Horozović
D. Agovic
Manager: D. Agovic

Friendlies Clubs: Schott Mainz 3–1 Viktoria Aschaffenburg

Schott Mainz beat Viktoria Aschaffenburg 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 31, 2026.