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Schott Mainz vs SV Morlautern — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Schott Mainz
Schott Mainz
FT
9 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
SV Morlautern
SV Morlautern
4/19/2025Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 28Mz-Mombach BSA KR1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Schott Mainz79%
×Draw13%
SV Morlautern8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schott Mainz
3.03
SV Morlautern
0.89

Schott Mainz creates 240% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 46 away

creates per match

Schott Mainz
3.78
SV Morlautern
1.11

allows per match

Schott Mainz
0.67
SV Morlautern
2.28

finishing

Schott Mainz+0.00on par
SV Morlautern+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schott Mainz ↓

SV Morlautern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Schott Mainz or draw
92%
Schott Mainz or SV Morlautern
87%
Draw or SV Morlautern
21%

Winning margin

Schott Mainz wins by 2+
60%
SV Morlautern wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Schott Mainz 1+ goals
95%
Schott Mainz 2+ goals
80%
Schott Mainz 3+ goals
57%
SV Morlautern 1+ goals
59%
SV Morlautern 2+ goals
22%
SV Morlautern 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Schott Mainz (draw refunded)
91%
SV Morlautern (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schott Mainz at home — creates 3.78, concedes 0.67 · 27 matches

SV Morlautern away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.28 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schott Mainz attack 3.78 + SV Morlautern defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 3.03

SV Morlautern attack 1.11 + Schott Mainz defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Schott Mainz scores more
79%
level
13%
SV Morlautern scores more
8%

Schott Mainz at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Schott Mainz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Schott Mainz vs SV Morlautern

Schott Mainz beat SV Morlautern 9-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Mz-Mombach BSA KR1 in Mainz-Mombach.