Schott Mainz 0–2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Schott Mainz

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

M. Mustapha 82'

D. Srbeny 8'

8/17/2024

DFB Pokal · 1st RoundStadion am Bruchweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Schott Mainz11%

×Draw18%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Schott MainzExpected goals in this matchSpVgg Greuther Fürth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.73

2.21

Schott Mainz

0.73

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

2.21

SpVgg Greuther Fürth creates 203% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

0.33

creates per match

0.75

3.67

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Schott Mainz

0.33

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

0.75

allows per match

Schott Mainz

3.67

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schott Mainz+0.00on par

SpVgg Greuther Fürth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schott Mainz ↓

SpVgg Greuther Fürth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–112%

0–213%

0–310%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–23%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Schott Mainz or draw

29%

Schott Mainz or SpVgg Greuther Fürth

82%

Draw or SpVgg Greuther Fürth

89%

Winning margin

Schott Mainz wins by 2+

3%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

Schott Mainz 1+ goals

52%

Schott Mainz 2+ goals

17%

Schott Mainz 3+ goals

4%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1+ goals

89%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2+ goals

65%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Schott Mainz (draw refunded)

13%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth (draw refunded)

87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schott Mainz at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

SpVgg Greuther Fürth away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schott Mainz attack 0.33 + SpVgg Greuther Fürth defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.73

SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.75 + Schott Mainz defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Schott Mainz scores more

11%

level

18%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth scores more

71%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "SpVgg Greuther Fürth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

B. Hrgota

SpVgg Greuther Fürth · F

8.2

Match Events

8'

D. Srbeny

30'

Daniel Bohl

36'

N. Gießelmann← J. Consbruch

46'

M. Mustapha← D. Srbeny

55'

Silas Schwarz

62'

E. Kukanda← T. Itoi

62'

J. Mairose← E. Portmann

71'

Jost Mairose

72'

J. Roden← L. Thum

72'

A. Rimoldi← J. Wiltink

79'

R. Münz← G. Itter

82'

M. Mustapha↳ R. Massimo

85'

L. Popp← R. Massimo

85'

O. Mhamdi← M. Meyerhöfer

87'

M. Igerst← I. Wiegand

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SchottSpVgg

Overview

36%Possession64%

10Total Shots26

3Corners11

6Fouls4

Shots

10Total Shots26

0On Target8

8Off Target12

2Blocked6

7Inside Box13

3Outside Box13

Passing

36%Possession64%

346Total Passes613

272Accurate Passes550

79%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

6Fouls4

3Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1