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Schott Mainz vs Speyer — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Schott Mainz
Schott Mainz
FT
3 – 1
Speyer
Speyer
8/7/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Mombach Kunstrasen 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Schott Mainz83%
×Draw11%
Speyer6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schott Mainz
3.10
Speyer
0.74

Schott Mainz creates 319% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Schott Mainz
4.20
Speyer
0.67

allows per match

Schott Mainz
0.80
Speyer
2.00

finishing

Schott Mainz+0.00on par
Speyer+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schott Mainz ↓

Speyer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Schott Mainz or draw
94%
Schott Mainz or Speyer
89%
Draw or Speyer
17%

Winning margin

Schott Mainz wins by 2+
64%
Speyer wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Schott Mainz 1+ goals
95%
Schott Mainz 2+ goals
81%
Schott Mainz 3+ goals
58%
Speyer 1+ goals
52%
Speyer 2+ goals
17%
Speyer 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Schott Mainz (draw refunded)
93%
Speyer (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schott Mainz at home — creates 4.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Speyer away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schott Mainz attack 4.20 + Speyer defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.10

Speyer attack 0.67 + Schott Mainz defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Schott Mainz scores more
83%
level
11%
Speyer scores more
6%

Schott Mainz at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Schott Mainz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Schott Mainz vs Speyer

Schott Mainz beat Speyer 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 7, 2020.

The match was played at Mombach Kunstrasen 1 in Mainz-Mombach.