Schott Mainz 1–0 Karbach: Result & Stats

Schott Mainz

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Karbach

10/12/2024

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 12Mz-Mombach BSA KR1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Schott Mainz73%

×Draw15%

Karbach12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Schott MainzExpected goals in this matchKarbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

1.13

Schott Mainz

2.92

Karbach

1.13

Schott Mainz creates 158% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 60 away

3.78

creates per match

1.58

0.67

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Schott Mainz

3.78

Karbach

1.58

allows per match

Schott Mainz

0.67

Karbach

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schott Mainz+0.00on par

Karbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schott Mainz ↓

Karbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Schott Mainz or draw

88%

Schott Mainz or Karbach

85%

Draw or Karbach

27%

Winning margin

Schott Mainz wins by 2+

53%

Karbach wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Schott Mainz 1+ goals

94%

Schott Mainz 2+ goals

78%

Schott Mainz 3+ goals

55%

Karbach 1+ goals

68%

Karbach 2+ goals

31%

Karbach 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Schott Mainz (draw refunded)

86%

Karbach (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schott Mainz at home — creates 3.78, concedes 0.67 · 27 matches

Karbach away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.07 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schott Mainz attack 3.78 + Karbach defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.92

Karbach attack 1.58 + Schott Mainz defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Schott Mainz scores more

73%

level

15%

Karbach scores more

12%

Schott Mainz at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Schott Mainz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff