Schott Mainz U19 2–6 Karlsruher SC U19

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Schott Mainz U19Expected goals in this matchKarlsruher SC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

2.30

Schott Mainz U19

1.50

Karlsruher SC U19

2.30

Karlsruher SC U19 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 74 away

1.42

creates per match

1.73

2.88

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Schott Mainz U19

1.42

Karlsruher SC U19

1.73

allows per match

Schott Mainz U19

2.88

Karlsruher SC U19

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schott Mainz U19+0.00on par

Karlsruher SC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schott Mainz U19 ↓

Karlsruher SC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Schott Mainz U19 or draw

45%

Schott Mainz U19 or Karlsruher SC U19

80%

Draw or Karlsruher SC U19

75%

Winning margin

Schott Mainz U19 wins by 2+

11%

Karlsruher SC U19 wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Schott Mainz U19 1+ goals

78%

Schott Mainz U19 2+ goals

44%

Schott Mainz U19 3+ goals

19%

Karlsruher SC U19 1+ goals

90%

Karlsruher SC U19 2+ goals

67%

Karlsruher SC U19 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Schott Mainz U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Karlsruher SC U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schott Mainz U19 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.88 · 26 matches

Karlsruher SC U19 away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schott Mainz U19 attack 1.42 + Karlsruher SC U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.50

Karlsruher SC U19 attack 1.73 + Schott Mainz U19 defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Schott Mainz U19 scores more

25%

level

20%

Karlsruher SC U19 scores more

55%

Karlsruher SC U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Karlsruher SC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

T. Gündogdu

45+2'

L. Ben Farhat

51'

H. Arbai

60'

B. Patschke← T. Gündogdu

60'

J. Frisch← K. Benali

60'

B. El-Dor← L. Ben Farhat

60'

E. Pop← F. Braun

60'

F. Lienert← H. Arbai

60'

F. Lutolli← L. Rega

60'

L. Parduzi← N. Behr

60'

M. Mutz← S. Guggenbühler

65'

B. Patschke

71'

F. Lutolli

74'

D. Maličević← P. Trainor

74'

L. Bernjus← F. Wronkowski

74'

L. Dumiec← L. Chirivi

81'

K. Cirpan

86'

E. Pop

90+1'

B. El-Dor

Schott

Karlsruher

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Arbai

⚽

Cirpan

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Staegemann

60'▲B. Patschke←▼T. Gündogdu

60'▲J. Frisch←▼K. Benali

74'▲D. Maličević←▼P. Trainor

74'▲L. Bernjus←▼F. Wronkowski

74'▲L. Dumiec←▼L. Chirivi

Schott Mainz U19 substitutes

PatschkeFrischMaličevićBernjusDumiecBalzerNeumann

Manager: R. Kettemann

60'▲B. El-Dor←▼L. Ben Farhat

60'▲E. Pop←▼F. Braun

60'▲F. Lienert←▼H. Arbai

60'▲F. Lutolli←▼L. Rega

60'▲L. Parduzi←▼N. Behr

60'▲M. Mutz←▼S. Guggenbühler

Karlsruher SC U19 substitutes

El-DorPopLienertLutolliParduziMutzBärtl

Match Recap: Schott Mainz U19 vs Karlsruher SC U19

Karlsruher SC U19 beat Schott Mainz U19 6-2 in U19 Bundesliga on December 7, 2024.

Goals: T. Gündogdu (34'), L. Ben Farhat (45+2'), H. Arbai (51'), B. Patschke (65'), F. Lutolli (71'), K. Cirpan (81'), E. Pop (86'), B. El-Dor (90+1').

The match was played at Mainz Golden Eagles Stadium in Mainz-Mombach.

Schott Mainz U19 vs Karlsruher SC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Schott Mainz U19 vs Karlsruher SC U19