Schott Mainz U19 0–7 Bochum U19: Result & Stats

Schott Mainz U19

FT

0 – 7

HT: 0 – 1

Bochum U19

10/18/2025

U19 Bundesliga · Round 9Otto-Schott-Sportzentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Schott Mainz U1922%

×Draw19%

Bochum U1959%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Schott Mainz U19Expected goals in this matchBochum U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

2.50

Schott Mainz U19

1.47

Bochum U19

2.50

Bochum U19 creates 70% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 67 away

1.42

creates per match

2.13

2.88

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Schott Mainz U19

1.42

Bochum U19

2.13

allows per match

Schott Mainz U19

2.88

Bochum U19

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schott Mainz U19+0.00on par

Bochum U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schott Mainz U19 ↓

Bochum U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Schott Mainz U19 or draw

41%

Schott Mainz U19 or Bochum U19

81%

Draw or Bochum U19

78%

Winning margin

Schott Mainz U19 wins by 2+

9%

Bochum U19 wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Schott Mainz U19 1+ goals

77%

Schott Mainz U19 2+ goals

43%

Schott Mainz U19 3+ goals

18%

Bochum U19 1+ goals

92%

Bochum U19 2+ goals

71%

Bochum U19 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Schott Mainz U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Bochum U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schott Mainz U19 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.88 · 26 matches

Bochum U19 away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.52 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schott Mainz U19 attack 1.42 + Bochum U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.47

Bochum U19 attack 2.13 + Schott Mainz U19 defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Schott Mainz U19 scores more

22%

level

19%

Bochum U19 scores more

59%

Bochum U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bochum U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff