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Schonnebeck vs TVD Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Schonnebeck
Schonnebeck
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
TVD Velbert
TVD Velbert
5/29/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 41Sportanlage Schetters Busch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Schonnebeck59%
×Draw19%
TVD Velbert22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schonnebeck
2.37
TVD Velbert
1.40

Schonnebeck creates 69% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 72 away

creates per match

Schonnebeck
2.67
TVD Velbert
1.38

allows per match

Schonnebeck
1.41
TVD Velbert
2.07

finishing

Schonnebeck+0.00on par
TVD Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schonnebeck ↓

TVD Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Schonnebeck or draw
78%
Schonnebeck or TVD Velbert
81%
Draw or TVD Velbert
41%

Winning margin

Schonnebeck wins by 2+
37%
TVD Velbert wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Schonnebeck 1+ goals
91%
Schonnebeck 2+ goals
68%
Schonnebeck 3+ goals
42%
TVD Velbert 1+ goals
75%
TVD Velbert 2+ goals
41%
TVD Velbert 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Schonnebeck (draw refunded)
73%
TVD Velbert (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schonnebeck at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.41 · 90 matches

TVD Velbert away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.07 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schonnebeck attack 2.67 + TVD Velbert defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.37

TVD Velbert attack 1.38 + Schonnebeck defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Schonnebeck scores more
59%
level
19%
TVD Velbert scores more
22%

Schonnebeck at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Schonnebeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Schonnebeck 3–4 TVD Velbert

TVD Velbert beat Schonnebeck 4-3 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on May 29, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Schetters Busch in Essen.