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Schonnebeck vs SSVg Velbert — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Schonnebeck
Schonnebeck
CANC
18:00
SSVg Velbert
SSVg Velbert
1/16/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Sportanlage Schetters Busch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Schonnebeck53%
×Draw19%
SSVg Velbert28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schonnebeck
2.55
SSVg Velbert
1.82

Schonnebeck creates 40% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Schonnebeck
3.11
SSVg Velbert
2.20

allows per match

Schonnebeck
1.44
SSVg Velbert
2.00

finishing

Schonnebeck+0.00on par
SSVg Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schonnebeck ↓

SSVg Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Schonnebeck or draw
72%
Schonnebeck or SSVg Velbert
81%
Draw or SSVg Velbert
47%

Winning margin

Schonnebeck wins by 2+
34%
SSVg Velbert wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Schonnebeck 1+ goals
92%
Schonnebeck 2+ goals
72%
Schonnebeck 3+ goals
46%
SSVg Velbert 1+ goals
84%
SSVg Velbert 2+ goals
54%
SSVg Velbert 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Schonnebeck (draw refunded)
66%
SSVg Velbert (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schonnebeck at home — creates 3.11, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

SSVg Velbert away — creates 2.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schonnebeck attack 3.11 + SSVg Velbert defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.55

SSVg Velbert attack 2.20 + Schonnebeck defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Schonnebeck scores more
53%
level
19%
SSVg Velbert scores more
28%

Schonnebeck at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Schonnebeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Schonnebeck vs SSVg Velbert — Match Preview

Schonnebeck face SSVg Velbert on January 16, 2024 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Schonnebeck host SSVg Velbert at Sportanlage Schetters Busch.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.