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Schonnebeck vs SF Hamborn — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Schonnebeck
Schonnebeck
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
SF Hamborn
SF Hamborn
6/2/2024Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 34Sportanlage Schetters Busch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Schonnebeck61%
×Draw18%
SF Hamborn21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schonnebeck
2.63
SF Hamborn
1.52

Schonnebeck creates 73% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 37 away

creates per match

Schonnebeck
2.67
SF Hamborn
1.62

allows per match

Schonnebeck
1.41
SF Hamborn
2.59

finishing

Schonnebeck+0.00on par
SF Hamborn+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schonnebeck ↓

SF Hamborn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Schonnebeck or draw
79%
Schonnebeck or SF Hamborn
82%
Draw or SF Hamborn
39%

Winning margin

Schonnebeck wins by 2+
40%
SF Hamborn wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Schonnebeck 1+ goals
93%
Schonnebeck 2+ goals
73%
Schonnebeck 3+ goals
48%
SF Hamborn 1+ goals
78%
SF Hamborn 2+ goals
45%
SF Hamborn 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Schonnebeck (draw refunded)
74%
SF Hamborn (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schonnebeck at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.41 · 90 matches

SF Hamborn away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schonnebeck attack 2.67 + SF Hamborn defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.63

SF Hamborn attack 1.62 + Schonnebeck defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Schonnebeck scores more
61%
level
18%
SF Hamborn scores more
21%

Schonnebeck at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Schonnebeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Schonnebeck 4–1 SF Hamborn

Schonnebeck beat SF Hamborn 4-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on June 2, 2024.

The match was played at Sportanlage Schetters Busch in Essen.