Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Schonnebeck vs Mülheimer — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Schonnebeck
Schonnebeck
FT
7 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Mülheimer
Mülheimer
9/29/2024Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 7Sportanlage Schetters Busch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Schonnebeck67%
×Draw17%
Mülheimer16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schonnebeck
2.60
Mülheimer
1.19

Schonnebeck creates 118% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 34 away

creates per match

Schonnebeck
2.67
Mülheimer
0.97

allows per match

Schonnebeck
1.41
Mülheimer
2.53

finishing

Schonnebeck+0.00on par
Mülheimer+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schonnebeck ↓

Mülheimer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Schonnebeck or draw
84%
Schonnebeck or Mülheimer
83%
Draw or Mülheimer
33%

Winning margin

Schonnebeck wins by 2+
46%
Mülheimer wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Schonnebeck 1+ goals
92%
Schonnebeck 2+ goals
73%
Schonnebeck 3+ goals
47%
Mülheimer 1+ goals
70%
Mülheimer 2+ goals
33%
Mülheimer 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Schonnebeck (draw refunded)
81%
Mülheimer (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schonnebeck at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.41 · 90 matches

Mülheimer away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schonnebeck attack 2.67 + Mülheimer defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.60

Mülheimer attack 0.97 + Schonnebeck defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Schonnebeck scores more
67%
level
17%
Mülheimer scores more
16%

Schonnebeck at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Schonnebeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Schonnebeck 7–0 Mülheimer

Schonnebeck beat Mülheimer 7-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Sportanlage Schetters Busch in Essen.