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Schonnebeck vs MSV Düsseldorf — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Schonnebeck
Schonnebeck
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
MSV Düsseldorf
MSV Düsseldorf
4/29/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 36Sportanlage Schetters Busch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Schonnebeck50%
×Draw20%
MSV Düsseldorf30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schonnebeck
2.26
MSV Düsseldorf
1.71

Schonnebeck creates 32% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 20 away

creates per match

Schonnebeck
2.67
MSV Düsseldorf
2.00

allows per match

Schonnebeck
1.41
MSV Düsseldorf
1.85

finishing

Schonnebeck+0.00on par
MSV Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schonnebeck ↓

MSV Düsseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Schonnebeck or draw
70%
Schonnebeck or MSV Düsseldorf
80%
Draw or MSV Düsseldorf
50%

Winning margin

Schonnebeck wins by 2+
30%
MSV Düsseldorf wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Schonnebeck 1+ goals
89%
Schonnebeck 2+ goals
66%
Schonnebeck 3+ goals
39%
MSV Düsseldorf 1+ goals
82%
MSV Düsseldorf 2+ goals
51%
MSV Düsseldorf 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Schonnebeck (draw refunded)
63%
MSV Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schonnebeck at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.41 · 90 matches

MSV Düsseldorf away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schonnebeck attack 2.67 + MSV Düsseldorf defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.26

MSV Düsseldorf attack 2.00 + Schonnebeck defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Schonnebeck scores more
50%
level
20%
MSV Düsseldorf scores more
30%

Schonnebeck at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Schonnebeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Schonnebeck 1–1 MSV Düsseldorf

Schonnebeck and MSV Düsseldorf drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Schetters Busch in Essen.