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Schonnebeck vs Jahn Hiesfeld — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Schonnebeck
Schonnebeck
CANC
18:30
Jahn Hiesfeld
Jahn Hiesfeld
3/3/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 28Sportanlage Schetters Busch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Schonnebeck61%
×Draw18%
Jahn Hiesfeld21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schonnebeck
2.56
Jahn Hiesfeld
1.46

Schonnebeck creates 75% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 22 away

creates per match

Schonnebeck
2.67
Jahn Hiesfeld
1.50

allows per match

Schonnebeck
1.41
Jahn Hiesfeld
2.45

finishing

Schonnebeck+0.00on par
Jahn Hiesfeld+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schonnebeck ↓

Jahn Hiesfeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Schonnebeck or draw
79%
Schonnebeck or Jahn Hiesfeld
82%
Draw or Jahn Hiesfeld
39%

Winning margin

Schonnebeck wins by 2+
40%
Jahn Hiesfeld wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Schonnebeck 1+ goals
92%
Schonnebeck 2+ goals
72%
Schonnebeck 3+ goals
46%
Jahn Hiesfeld 1+ goals
77%
Jahn Hiesfeld 2+ goals
43%
Jahn Hiesfeld 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Schonnebeck (draw refunded)
74%
Jahn Hiesfeld (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schonnebeck at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.41 · 90 matches

Jahn Hiesfeld away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schonnebeck attack 2.67 + Jahn Hiesfeld defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.56

Jahn Hiesfeld attack 1.50 + Schonnebeck defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Schonnebeck scores more
61%
level
18%
Jahn Hiesfeld scores more
21%

Schonnebeck at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Schonnebeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Schonnebeck vs Jahn Hiesfeld — Match Preview

Schonnebeck face Jahn Hiesfeld on March 3, 2021 in this Oberliga - Niederrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Schonnebeck host Jahn Hiesfeld at Sportanlage Schetters Busch.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.