Schonnebeck 0–1 Hilden: Result & Stats

Schonnebeck

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hilden

2/22/2026

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 20Sportanlage Schetters Busch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Schonnebeck44%

×Draw21%

Hilden34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SchonnebeckExpected goals in this matchHilden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.80

Schonnebeck

2.06

Hilden

1.80

Schonnebeck creates 14% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 91 away

2.67

creates per match

2.19

1.41

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Schonnebeck

2.67

Hilden

2.19

allows per match

Schonnebeck

1.41

Hilden

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schonnebeck+0.00on par

Hilden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schonnebeck ↓

Hilden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Schonnebeck or draw

66%

Schonnebeck or Hilden

79%

Draw or Hilden

56%

Winning margin

Schonnebeck wins by 2+

25%

Hilden wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Schonnebeck 1+ goals

87%

Schonnebeck 2+ goals

61%

Schonnebeck 3+ goals

34%

Hilden 1+ goals

83%

Hilden 2+ goals

54%

Hilden 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Schonnebeck (draw refunded)

56%

Hilden (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schonnebeck at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.41 · 90 matches

Hilden away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.45 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schonnebeck attack 2.67 + Hilden defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 2.06

Hilden attack 2.19 + Schonnebeck defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Schonnebeck scores more

44%

level

21%

Hilden scores more

34%

Schonnebeck at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Schonnebeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff