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Schonnebeck vs Cronenberger SC — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Schonnebeck
Schonnebeck
FT
3 – 1
Cronenberger SC
Cronenberger SC
11/28/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 14Sportanlage Schetters Busch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Schonnebeck65%
×Draw18%
Cronenberger SC17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schonnebeck
2.58
Cronenberger SC
1.27

Schonnebeck creates 103% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 42 away

creates per match

Schonnebeck
2.67
Cronenberger SC
1.12

allows per match

Schonnebeck
1.41
Cronenberger SC
2.48

finishing

Schonnebeck+0.00on par
Cronenberger SC+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schonnebeck ↓

Cronenberger SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Schonnebeck or draw
83%
Schonnebeck or Cronenberger SC
82%
Draw or Cronenberger SC
35%

Winning margin

Schonnebeck wins by 2+
44%
Cronenberger SC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Schonnebeck 1+ goals
92%
Schonnebeck 2+ goals
72%
Schonnebeck 3+ goals
47%
Cronenberger SC 1+ goals
72%
Cronenberger SC 2+ goals
36%
Cronenberger SC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Schonnebeck (draw refunded)
79%
Cronenberger SC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schonnebeck at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.41 · 90 matches

Cronenberger SC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.48 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schonnebeck attack 2.67 + Cronenberger SC defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.58

Cronenberger SC attack 1.12 + Schonnebeck defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Schonnebeck scores more
65%
level
18%
Cronenberger SC scores more
17%

Schonnebeck at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Schonnebeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Schonnebeck 3–1 Cronenberger SC

Schonnebeck beat Cronenberger SC 3-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Sportanlage Schetters Busch in Essen.