Schonnebeck 2–2 Büderich: Result & Stats

Schonnebeck

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Büderich

11/9/2025

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 13Sportanlage Schetters Busch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Schonnebeck54%

×Draw20%

Büderich27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SchonnebeckExpected goals in this matchBüderich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.67

Schonnebeck

2.42

Büderich

1.67

Schonnebeck creates 45% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 50 away

2.67

creates per match

1.92

1.41

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Schonnebeck

2.67

Büderich

1.92

allows per match

Schonnebeck

1.41

Büderich

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schonnebeck+0.00on par

Büderich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schonnebeck ↓

Büderich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Schonnebeck or draw

73%

Schonnebeck or Büderich

80%

Draw or Büderich

46%

Winning margin

Schonnebeck wins by 2+

34%

Büderich wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Schonnebeck 1+ goals

91%

Schonnebeck 2+ goals

69%

Schonnebeck 3+ goals

43%

Büderich 1+ goals

81%

Büderich 2+ goals

50%

Büderich 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Schonnebeck (draw refunded)

67%

Büderich (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schonnebeck at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.41 · 90 matches

Büderich away — creates 1.92, concedes 2.18 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schonnebeck attack 2.67 + Büderich defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.42

Büderich attack 1.92 + Schonnebeck defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Schonnebeck scores more

54%

level

20%

Büderich scores more

27%

Schonnebeck at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Schonnebeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff