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Schladming vs TuS Heiligenkreuz — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Schladming
Schladming
FT
2 – 3
TuS Heiligenkreuz
TuS Heiligenkreuz
11/3/2023Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 14Hohenhaus Tenne Area Schladming

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Schladming43%
×Draw23%
TuS Heiligenkreuz34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schladming
1.74
TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.54

Schladming creates 13% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 72 away

creates per match

Schladming
1.38
TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.49

allows per match

Schladming
1.58
TuS Heiligenkreuz
2.10

finishing

Schladming+0.00on par
TuS Heiligenkreuz+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schladming ↓

TuS Heiligenkreuz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Schladming or draw
66%
Schladming or TuS Heiligenkreuz
77%
Draw or TuS Heiligenkreuz
57%

Winning margin

Schladming wins by 2+
22%
TuS Heiligenkreuz wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Schladming 1+ goals
82%
Schladming 2+ goals
52%
Schladming 3+ goals
25%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 1+ goals
79%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 2+ goals
45%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Schladming (draw refunded)
55%
TuS Heiligenkreuz (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schladming at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

TuS Heiligenkreuz away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.10 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schladming attack 1.38 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.74

TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.49 + Schladming defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Schladming scores more
43%
level
23%
TuS Heiligenkreuz scores more
34%

Schladming at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Schladming will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Schladming vs TuS Heiligenkreuz

TuS Heiligenkreuz beat Schladming 3-2 in Landesliga - Steiermark on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Hohenhaus Tenne Area Schladming in Schladming.