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Schladming vs Tillmitsch — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Schladming
Schladming
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Tillmitsch
Tillmitsch
10/17/2025Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 12Hohenhaus Tenne Area Schladming

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Schladming31%
×Draw24%
Tillmitsch45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schladming
1.38
Tillmitsch
1.70

Tillmitsch creates 23% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Schladming
1.38
Tillmitsch
1.82

allows per match

Schladming
1.58
Tillmitsch
1.38

finishing

Schladming+0.00on par
Tillmitsch+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schladming ↓

Tillmitsch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Schladming or draw
55%
Schladming or Tillmitsch
76%
Draw or Tillmitsch
69%

Winning margin

Schladming wins by 2+
14%
Tillmitsch wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Schladming 1+ goals
75%
Schladming 2+ goals
40%
Schladming 3+ goals
16%
Tillmitsch 1+ goals
82%
Tillmitsch 2+ goals
51%
Tillmitsch 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Schladming (draw refunded)
41%
Tillmitsch (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schladming at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

Tillmitsch away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.38 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schladming attack 1.38 + Tillmitsch defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Tillmitsch attack 1.82 + Schladming defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Schladming scores more
31%
level
24%
Tillmitsch scores more
45%

Tillmitsch at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tillmitsch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Schladming vs Tillmitsch

Schladming and Tillmitsch drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Steiermark on October 17, 2025.

The match was played at Hohenhaus Tenne Area Schladming in Schladming.