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Schladming vs Lafnitz II — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Schladming
Schladming
FT
4 – 4
Lafnitz II
Lafnitz II
8/9/2024Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 2Hohenhaus Tenne Area Schladming

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Schladming36%
×Draw23%
Lafnitz II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schladming
1.59
Lafnitz II
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 75 away

creates per match

Schladming
1.38
Lafnitz II
1.84

allows per match

Schladming
1.58
Lafnitz II
1.80

finishing

Schladming+0.00on par
Lafnitz II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schladming ↓

Lafnitz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Schladming or draw
59%
Schladming or Lafnitz II
77%
Draw or Lafnitz II
64%

Winning margin

Schladming wins by 2+
18%
Lafnitz II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Schladming 1+ goals
80%
Schladming 2+ goals
47%
Schladming 3+ goals
21%
Lafnitz II 1+ goals
82%
Lafnitz II 2+ goals
51%
Lafnitz II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Schladming (draw refunded)
47%
Lafnitz II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schladming at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

Lafnitz II away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.80 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schladming attack 1.38 + Lafnitz II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.59

Lafnitz II attack 1.84 + Schladming defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Schladming scores more
36%
level
23%
Lafnitz II scores more
41%

Lafnitz II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lafnitz II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Schladming vs Lafnitz II

Schladming and Lafnitz II drew 4-4 in Landesliga - Steiermark on August 9, 2024.

The match was played at Hohenhaus Tenne Area Schladming in Schladming.