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Schladming vs Gnas — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Schladming
Schladming
FT
1 – 0
Gnas
Gnas
5/24/2024Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 28Hohenhaus Tenne Area Schladming

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Schladming45%
×Draw24%
Gnas31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schladming
1.69
Gnas
1.37

Schladming creates 23% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 73 away

creates per match

Schladming
1.38
Gnas
1.16

allows per match

Schladming
1.58
Gnas
2.00

finishing

Schladming+0.00on par
Gnas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schladming ↓

Gnas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Schladming or draw
69%
Schladming or Gnas
76%
Draw or Gnas
55%

Winning margin

Schladming wins by 2+
24%
Gnas wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Schladming 1+ goals
82%
Schladming 2+ goals
50%
Schladming 3+ goals
24%
Gnas 1+ goals
75%
Gnas 2+ goals
40%
Gnas 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Schladming (draw refunded)
59%
Gnas (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schladming at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

Gnas away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.00 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schladming attack 1.38 + Gnas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Gnas attack 1.16 + Schladming defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Schladming scores more
45%
level
24%
Gnas scores more
31%

Schladming at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Schladming will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Schladming 1–0 Gnas

Schladming beat Gnas 1-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on May 24, 2024.

The match was played at Hohenhaus Tenne Area Schladming in Schladming.